Just a few days before the state election on March 8, 2026, a close race for victory is emerging in Baden-Württemberg. According to the latest data from the ZDF-Politbarometer Extra, the Greens and the CDU are tied with 28 percent of the votes each. This means the Greens have fully recovered their losses from recent weeks, while the CDU gained only one percentage point compared to the previous week.
The AfD is in third place with 18 percent, followed by the SPD, which would get 8 percent. For the FDP and the Left, both noted at 5.5 percent, entry into the state parliament remains uncertain. Despite the current poll figures, experts point out that around 32 percent of eligible voters are still undecided about whether and whom they want to vote for.
When asked about the preferred Minister President, the Green top candidate Cem Özdemir enjoys a clear advantage. 47 percent of those surveyed would choose him, while Manuel Hagel from the CDU would come in at 25 percent. The current incumbent Winfried Kretschmann is not running again after 15 years in office. A continuation of the coalition between the Greens and the CDU, which has existed since 2016, would be mathematically possible based on the available figures.
