Four years after the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian state leadership under Vladimir Putin finds itself in a mixed position. While the country faces logistical and security hurdles, new prospects are opening up on the world political stage. A key part of Russia's strategy remains how it deals with international sanctions and how it secures its export routes.
Recently, there was an incident in the Baltic Sea involving a so-called 'shadow fleet tanker'. The ship, which is likely used to transport Russian oil while avoiding sanctions, escaped a check by the Federal Police in the Fehmarn Belt. Such incidents highlight the tensions in international waters and Russia's efforts to maintain its economic ability to act despite restrictive measures.
Geopolitically, the Kremlin looks toward the change of government in the United States with expectation. The return of Donald Trump to the White House is seen by observers as a potential 'stroke of luck' because it could lead to a weakening of Western support for Kyiv. Nevertheless, significant worries remain: the economic burden of the war, technological dependence, and the long-term isolation from European markets weigh heavily.
Cultural and intellectual voices, such as that of the writer Viktor Jerofejew, warn of a deep change in Russian society. He describes an atmosphere where the glorification of struggle increasingly dictates daily life and where a return to peaceful coexistence with the West seems very distant. The coming months will show whether Moscow's strategic hopes can outweigh the structural deficits.
